SOL Price Prediction: Navigating Near-Term Pressure for Long-Term Growth

#SOL

• Critical Technical Juncture: SOL is testing major support at the lower Bollinger Band (~$120.5). A break below could accelerate selling, while holding above it may lead to consolidation.
• Negative Near-Term Catalysts: Recent underperformance and network activity declines have damaged short-term sentiment, aligning with the bearish technical bias.
• Long-Term Infrastructure Growth: Broader exchange and institutional expansion (e.g., Coinbase) builds a foundation for the next bull cycle, supporting multi-year price appreciation scenarios for surviving major layer-1 tokens like SOL.

SOL Price Prediction

Technical Analysis: SOL Faces Critical Support Test

According to BTCC financial analyst Emma, SOL is currently trading at $124.64, which is below its 20-day moving average of $132.17. This suggests a short-term bearish momentum. The MACD indicator shows a positive histogram at 2.12, indicating that bullish momentum, while present, is weakening as the MACD line (3.23) converges towards the signal line (1.11). The price is hovering NEAR the lower Bollinger Band at $120.52, a key support level. A sustained break below this could signal further downside towards the $110-$115 zone. The immediate resistance is the middle band at $132.17. Emma notes that the technical picture points to consolidation with a bearish bias, and a close above the 20-day MA is needed to shift the short-term outlook.

Market Sentiment: Network Strain Weighs on SOL

BTCC financial analyst Emma assesses that recent headlines have injected caution into SOL's market sentiment. The token's 32% underperformance against the broader altcoin market and a $250 million liquidation event linked to declining network activity are primary concerns. These factors validate the technical weakness seen on the charts. However, Emma highlights that broader institutional moves, like Coinbase's expansion into new asset classes, reflect a maturing crypto infrastructure that could benefit major layer-1 tokens like SOL in the long run. The current sentiment is negatively skewed but not devoid of structural positives for the sector.

Factors Influencing SOL’s Price

Solana's SOL Token Underperforms Altcoin Market Amid 32% Decline

Solana's native token SOL has dropped 32% since November, significantly underperforming the broader altcoin market's 21% decline. The network's weekly fees have fallen to $4.5 million from $7 million two months ago, while decentralized application revenue decreased by 30%.

Competing layer-1 networks like Base, Arbitrum, and Polygon saw transaction growth of 34%, 21%, and 89% respectively during the same period. SOL currently trades below $128 after failing to hold the critical $134 Fibonacci support level, with technical indicators flashing oversold conditions.

Institutional interest remains a rare bright spot. The REX-Osprey SOL+Staking ETF and other U.S.-based Solana ETFs have accumulated $636 million in assets since July. Corporate balance sheets now hold 20.35 million SOL worth over $2.5 billion, with 68% of circulating supply staked for yields exceeding 6%.

Solana's Wild Swing Erases $250 Million as Network Activity Declines

Solana's SOL token plunged 5% to $122 during New York trading hours, reversing sharply from a brief rally to $134. The whipsaw action liquidated $250 million in long positions as the cryptocurrency broke through critical support at $128.

Network metrics show weakening fundamentals, with weekly transactions collapsing 35% since July to 527 million. Derivatives markets reflect fading interest, with open Solana futures positions halving to $7.4 billion from October's $14.8 billion peak.

Technical indicators suggest potential for further downside, with the Relative Strength Index flashing bearish momentum. The token now tests support at $120, while resistance firms at $128. Market participants attribute part of the volatility to broader tech sector weakness, with semiconductor stocks including Nvidia dragging on risk appetite.

Coinbase Expands into Equities and Prediction Markets in Bid to Become 'Everything Exchange'

Coinbase unveiled its most ambitious product expansion to date, introducing stock trading and prediction markets while deepening its crypto offerings. The December 17 update positions the platform to compete with traditional brokerages and decentralized exchanges alike.

U.S. users can now trade equities and ETFs commission-free alongside crypto holdings—a first for major exchanges. The move precedes planned 2026 tokenized equity offerings. Non-U.S. clients gain access to stock-linked perpetual futures, bridging traditional and crypto markets.

The integration with prediction market platform Kalshi and Solana DEX capabilities via Jupiter signals Coinbase's strategy to capture adjacent financial verticals. 'We're building the infrastructure for the future of value exchange,' said a company spokesperson during the announcement.

SOL Price Predictions: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 Forecasts

Based on the current technical setup and market sentiment analyzed by BTCC financial analyst Emma, here is a framework for SOL's price trajectory. These are not definitive targets but scenarios based on prevailing conditions, adoption trends, and historical crypto market cycles.

Emma emphasizes that these forecasts are highly sensitive to technological execution, regulatory developments, and overall cryptocurrency adoption rates. The near-term pressure is evident, but the long-term thesis for leading smart contract platforms remains intact.